| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | W | TCU | 15-10 | 1641.4 | -32.8 | 1608.6 | 43.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | East Tennessee State | 35-3 | 1608.6 | +5.0 | 1613.6 | 96.1% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Clemson | 20-28 | 1613.6 | -13.0 | 1600.6 | 44.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Notre Dame | 26-37 | 1603.1 | +30.5 | 1633.6 | 4.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Pittsburgh | 21-17 | 1633.6 | +43.5 | 1677.1 | 22.5% |